Tag: Peloponnesian War

Thucydides Trap: Is War Between the U.S. and China Inevitable?

April 12, 2019 | Blog 6

“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

So described Athenian historian Thucydides on the Peloponnesian War two and a half millennia ago.

What was the Peloponnesian War? Let me begin by explaining Athens’ gradual rise in power.

After the Greek city-states banded together to fight off the Persians, the group split into two main alliances: the Delian and Peloponnesian Leagues. The Delian League, under the control of Athens, was a broad pact of city-states based on the Mediterranean Sea with a powerful navy.

With the League’s treasury shifted to Athens by 454 BC, Athens was no longer a republic but an empire. The following years were characterized by the degradation and brutal treatment of allies.

With Athens as a rising power threatened to displace Sparta as the ruling power, the two city-states were on the path to a long and bloody war. This is known as the Thucydides Trap, and we can apply this concept to a familiar situation in modern times: the United States vs. China.

Over the past 60 years, China has transformed from an agrarian backwater to “the biggest player in the history of the world.” China and American risk plunging into the dangerous trap recognized by Thucydides.

In truth, this aged insight illustrates a destructive pattern in history. There have been multiple occurrences in which the rise of a significant nation has disrupted the position of a dominant state in the past few centuries.

A most recognizable example is a rapidly expansionist Germany threatening Britain’s state of hegemony in the last century. Their economic and military competition upgraded to world war.

Since World War II, the rules-based order designed by D.C. has allowed time without fighting among great powers. With China increasing in strength, the harmony countless generations have come to value is now endangered.

Despite his credibility, Thucydides’ claim about “inevitability” is bogus. A war between the U.S. and China is not predestined. In fact, Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping thoroughly discussed their situation at the 2015 U.S.-China summit. They agreed that the two nations are “capable of managing their disagreements” while it is possible for significant powers to slip up, resulting in war. 

Will something shortly prompt these two great nations to war? Will the leaders of the U.S. and China follow in the tragic footsteps of Athens and Sparta or Britain and Germany? Or will they keep the peace for years to come?

There is no definite answer, but tensions between the two nations will rise.

We must not allow the Thucydides’ Trap blind us from reality. Together we must band to brave history’s trends and defy the odds for the sake of our posterity.

— Cameron Guan

Word Count: 422

Sources:

The Atlantic article The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? by Graham Allison, published on Sep. 24, 2015, accessed on Apr. 12, 2019

History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides (c. 431 BCE)

Gridlock: Now and Then

February 22, 2019 | Blog #2

Have you ever witnessed a heated congressional hearing on TV and wondered how it’ll turn out?

You’re not alone.

The United States legislative branch holds a similar problem with thousands of smaller gridlocks which together are seen as clashing polarities between different political parties.

We’ve seen similar strife in the RTTP debate in class, and a seemingly simple solution is compromise. To be frank, it’s not that easy.

Such dissent often leads to gridlock within Congress, and we saw this occur between the radical democrats, the moderate democrats, the oligarchs, and the indeterminates. Over three days of intense debate, three vague and poorly formed laws were passed by the Athenian Assembly. A lack of productive outcomes results from gridlock, otherwise known as deadlock or political stalemate.

Many might question how 5th-century Athenian politics could possibly share similarities with 21st-century American politics; well, gridlock is an example of significant similarity.

To provide some background information to illustrate my point, allow me to talk about ancient Athens first.

After the Peloponnesian War between the ancient city-states of Sparta and Athens resulted in an Athenian loss, tyrants known as the Thirty were installed to control the city of Athens. Bloodthirsty and greedy, these tyrants ruled with an iron fist and crushed any opposition; soon they were overthrown by democratic insurgents led by Thrasybulus.

The Athenian Assembly gathered once again and debated about concerns that included the electorate and social welfare. A significant topic revolved around the Reconciliation Agreement, a law that provides a general amnesty to those who may have helped the Thirty Tyrants. The radical democrats under Thrasybulus wanted to defeat this law, while the moderate democrats fought to pass the proposition. Ultimately the Reconciliation Agreement was adopted with strong disagreement still ever present.

Athens back then was a direct democracy, which encompassed numerous advantages. In theory, idealists believe that it makes sure that the people’s voices are heard, encourages people to participate in the government, and reduces the chances of corruption.

However, in reality, not every person gets an equal vote and equal representation. Those on the Assembly were wealthier, land-owning citizens of Athens while metics and slaves were not permitted to join the Assembly. Furthermore, factions had varying representation as each had differing numbers of members.

Now comparing the Athenian Assembly to Congress, we see massive problems with gerrymandering and voting eligibility. Often there would be purges of voting rolls and controversies over voter ID laws.

Gridlock in Congress, according to the Stanford professor David Brady and University of Virginia professor Craig Volden, is due to two interrelated factors: first, “the preferences of members of Congress regarding particular policies” and second, “supermajority institutions – the Senate filibuster and the presidential veto.”

The two professors argue that gridlock is not due to solely party differences in Congress, but to individual preferences of politicians and policies.

The Founding Fathers designed the federal government in such a way to make the lawmaking process as difficult and winded as possible to enforce a system of checks and balances. Such policy is also a flaw as we witness stalemates and inaction regarding policies and laws on significant public issues such as gun control, abortion, and funding.

“The whole country is crying out in an agony of distress for measures of relief,” Henry Clay of Kentucky said in debate over a bank bill in 1841. But, he said, long-winded senators were delaying the public business with amendments that served only to “kill time, without any hope of practical results.”

In both Congress and the Athenian Assembly, we now understand how dissent leads to gridlock and a lack of outcome.

As Thucydides once said, “I shall be content if those shall pronounce my History useful who desire to give a view of events as they really happen, and as they are likely, in accordance with human nature, to repeat themselves at some future time—if not exactly the same yet very similar” (Thucydides 1.22). Perhaps we can propose change to our political system to create more productivity for the betterment of our lives and the lives of later generations.

— Cameron Guan

Word Count: 590

Sources:

Brady, David; Volden, Craig (2006). Revolving Gridlock: Politics and Policy from Jimmy Carter to George W. Bush. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. p. 4.

History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides (c. 431 BCE)

New York Times article The Nation; Gridlock, the Way It Used to Be by Robert Pear, published on Oct. 9, 1994, retrieved from 1994 Archives